No single pattern or set of patterns was observed in departments where the multi-patch model did not improve on the fit of the single-patch departmental model. In several departments, such as Bolivar and Norte de Santander, the single-patch departmental model provided a good fit to the data, leaving little room for improvement with the multi-patch model. There were several departments with smaller outbreaks, particularly Boyaca and Nariño, where the multi-patch rather than the single-patch departmental model had a tendency to overestimate the size of the epidemic. For both of these departments, the mean estimate from the multi-patch departmental model was actually a better fit, but the variance between simulations was greater, likely due to the additional stochasticity that arises from the possibility of stochastic fadeout occurring in each municipality in a multi-patch model. There were also several departments with smaller population sizes that had relative MASE scores near one. These departments, such as Amazonas and Vaupes, had few cases, and as a result neither the single-patch nor the multi-patch models estimated that an outbreak had occurred.
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Despite the exponential growth in the number of infected worldwide throughout the first half, a slowdown in the rate of contagions in some places led to the relaxation of specific restrictive measures, causing people to return to leave home to resume some of their activities (WHO 2020). However, the return to work and exposure to the risk of COVID-19 infection may contribute to the ad's resumption of mobility (Yan et al. 2020). Given this risk exposure, studies such as Kim (2020), Yan et al. (2020), and Sheth (2020) indicate that the pandemic could leave lasting impacts on consumer culture, may have transformed the structure of the market for the post-pandemic period, influenced consumer purchasing decisions, and even created new real and lasting buying habits and behaviors.
The perceived risks of COVID-19 can negatively influence the behavioral intentions of consumers (Troise et al. 2021) and lead to changes in people's behavior and consumption patterns (Brewer and Sebby 2021). In a pandemic context, the perceived risk and the threat of contagion influenced consumer behavior changes, emerging a greater preference for the use of technologies to socially distance themselves from humans (Kim et al. 2021).
Previous research has indicated that perceived risk determines purchase intention (Chiu et al. 2014; Zhang et al. 2018; Yan et al. 2020). The study of Yan et al. (2020) analyzes the changes in intentions of buying cars before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 in China. The results revealed that the outbreak of this epidemic strongly influenced the intentions of buying cars of some consumers. In addition, they also observed that the probability of being infected by the virus during a trip motivates consumers to adopt various protective behaviors (Yan et al. 2020).
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